Source: financial Union

Rising tensions in the Middle East and the superposition of US core retail expectations in March have made the US anti-inflationary path more tortuous, global risk aversion has risen, and the prices of large categories of assets other than the US dollar have fallen. As overseas stock markets such as US stocks, Japan and South Korea enter the adjustment, the offshore RMB weakens due to the strengthening of the US dollar, and the US 10-year bond interest rate rises to 4%.RainbowrichesfreespinsnodepositOver 6%, the short-term adjustment pressure on Hong Kong stocks has doubled.

On April 16, the Hang Seng Index opened low throughout the day and finally fell 351 points or 2%.Rainbowrichesfreespinsnodeposit0.2% to close at 16248 points, a new low for more than a month, while the Hang Seng Index fell 3.1% to 3337 points for the whole day. The turnover in the big market increased to more than HK $114.6 billion, and there was some panic selling in the market, but Hong Kong Stock Exchange took advantage of the opportunity to increase its holdings in Hong Kong stocks, resulting in a total inflow of HK $9.877 billion throughout the day.

Historically, when the performance of overseas markets is unstable, the performance of Hong Kong stocks, which are traditionally used as "cash machines" for international funds, will be put under pressure, and there will be greater pressure on technology, optional consumption and biomedicine, which are mainly held by foreign investors.

China's GDP grew by 5.3% in the first quarter of this year, exceeding market expectations, indicating that the policy may enter a window and observation period. However, March China's consumption, investment, industrial production and other data are mixed, the economy is weak recovery, the repair foundation is still not solid.

The earnings of Hong Kong stocks are expected to remain in a downward trend, affecting the momentum of the rebound of Hong Kong stocks, but lower absolute valuations, more corporate buybacks and dividends, and a series of industrial policies provide downside protection for Hong Kong stocks.

As a result, the Hang Seng Index is still expected to fluctuate in the range of 16000-17500. Due to the increased volatility in overseas markets, negative sentiment will spill over to Hong Kong stocks.RainbowrichesfreespinsnodepositWe expect that short-term stock funds will be more concentrated into central state-owned enterprises such as energy and telecommunications with high dividend capacity, as well as relevant sectors that benefit from a series of equipment renewal policies.

On the market, Hong Kong stocks fell across the board yesterday, with only 311 shares on the main board rising and 1199 shares falling, while the 12 Hang Seng Composite Industry Sub-Index fell across the board.

The overall decline in the market better reflects the accumulation of capital. PetroChina (857 HK), China Shenhua (1088 HK), Yanzhou Mining Energy (1171 HK), China Telecom (728 HK) and China Railway Corporation (1766 HK) rose 0.7%, 0.2%, 1.7%, 0.5% and 0.2% respectively.

Although itsRainbowrichesfreespinsnodepositThe shares of central state-owned enterprises in his bank, energy and telecommunications fell, but the decline was relatively slight, reflecting investors' reluctance to sell.

Optional consumption such as cultural travel, gambling, sporting goods, cars and retail stocks fell sharply. Leading Internet and software stocks performed weakly, such as Alibaba (9988 HK), which closed at its lowest level since January 23 this year.

. China non-ferrous mining (1258 HK) announced last week that it would raise money through an old-to-new rights issue, and yesterday Zhaojin Mining (1818 HK) announced a new share placement, its share price fell 3.3 per cent.

Us retail sales rose 0.7 per cent month-on-month in March (expected to be 0.3 per cent), revised to 0.9 per cent in February from 0.6 per cent, while core retail sales rose 1.1 per cent month-on-month, up from 0.3 per cent to 0.6 per cent last month.

In terms of year-on-year, US retail sales rose 4.0 per cent in March from a year earlier, the fastest pace in three months, while core retail sales grew 4.3 per cent year-on-year, the fastest pace since February 2023. Retail sales data for March showed that the robust job market and the wealth effect of financial markets were supporting household consumption growth. The weak retail sales data in January was caused by extreme weather and a high base in the same period last year.

Over the past month, US nominal interest rates, inflation expectations and real interest rates have risen by 28, 7 and 21 basis points respectively, and the term premium has risen by 5 basis points.

The rise in US debt interest rates mainly comes from the rise in real interest rates, and the slight contribution from inflation expectations implies more optimistic market expectations for long-term economic growth in the United States. The March consumption data are likely to increase the Fed's wait-and-see attitude and reduce the number and magnitude of interest rate cuts during the year. Current interest rate futures show that the possibility of not cutting interest rates in July has risen to 52.9%, and is expected to cut interest rates only twice for the whole year.